A review outcome of the Covid-19 tier allocation is expected to be announced on the 16 or 17 December 2020.
The whole of North Yorkshire is currently in tier-2, but with an improvement in infection rates, can Harrogate expect to move into tier-1 ?
The government has previously indicated both infection rates and available hospital capacity is a factor for the assigned tier.
Infection Rates per 100,00 of the previous week – Harrogate
- 9 December 2020 – 93
- 2 December 2020 – 92
Infection Rates per 100,00 of the previous week – North Yorkshire
- 9 December 2020 – 103.0
- 2 December 2020 – 106.9
Patients in North Yorkshire Hospitals with Covid-19
- 9 December 2020 – 209
- 2 December 2020 – 206
- 25 November 2020 – 272
Patients in Harrogate Hospital with Covid-19
- 9 December 2020 – 20
- 2 December 2020 – 22
- 25 November 2020 – 31
Infection rates for North Yorkshire shows a small reduction, but plateauing. Hospital cases showed a significant reduction for the report last week, but for this week the number have increased slightly.
Hospital staff off with either Covid-19 or self-isolating has greatly improved and seen as good, regardless of a Covid-19 virus. Hospitals are currently managing both Covid-19 cases and planned procedures. All the cases are reducing, it was only 3 weeks ago that a hospital in North Yorkshire cancelled some procedures due to Covid-19.
The other factors to consider:
- Christmas is coming and there will be a relaxation of the rules for mixing within a household, and if that will lead to an increase of cases
- Those currently allocated in tier-1, such as Cornwall and Scilly Isles have infection rates of less than 50 per 100,000, significantly lower than the rates in North Yorkshire and Harrogate of 93.
- There is an unknown, in if tier allocation will be by region or by district. It has been difficult for the police to manage West Yorkshire being as a neighbour in tier-3. Smaller regional allocations are only really manageable with the support of the public.
- Although the decision sits with central government, the North Yorkshire Health leaders, those leading the response to the virus, have indicated that they don’t support moving any part of North Yorkshire to tier-1.
Based on these factors it’s our view that the most likely outcome of any review will be that Harrogate remains in tier-2.