- Record dry spring and four summer heatwaves mean there will be drought next year without average winter rainfall.
- Widespread impacts on nature, agriculture, and navigation without sustained rain before end of March 2026
- Some hosepipe bans could continue with all water users told to prepare for prolonged drought next year
- Yorkshire will need to see a significant amount of winter rain to move back into normal conditions ahead of next year
England will experience worse levels of drought next year if this winter is drier than normal, the Environment Agency has warned.
The environmental regulator has released its Drought Prospects Report, examining the wet weather needed through the winter to ensure the country’s current low water levels recover by spring 2026.
Despite recent rainfall, the drought situation across the country is still precarious following a record dry spring and a continued run of heatwaves and dry weather throughout the summer. England has seen below average rainfall for eight out of ten months so far this year.
The Met Office has forecast heavy rain into Saturday but indicated a higher-than-usual likelihood of dry conditions over three months from November to January. This could cause drought conditions to worsen, leading to hosepipe bans, significant pressures on the environment and a risk to crop yields.
The new report analyses three different rainfall scenarios over winter and what each one would mean for water security across England’s regions ahead of next year’s traditionally drier months. Without average rainfall, most of England will experience a drought with widespread impacts felt by consumers, farmers, businesses, and nature.
The Environment Agency is urging the public to continue to play their part and use water wisely through winter, in anticipation of another drought year.
Director of Water at the Environment Agency, Helen Wakeham, said:
There will be a drought next year, unless we get sustained rainfall through the winter.
The severity of that drought will depend both on the weather and the actions we take over winter following this very dry year.
The public have been brilliant in using a little less water this summer and following the restrictions in some parts of the country. I would urge people to continue to be as efficient as possible
with their water use this winter – even if it is raining outside. Our wildlife, our rivers and our public water supplies depend on it.
Cllr Andy Brown said:
It is concerning in the extreme that Yorkshire Water believes it cannot guarantee water supplies next summer even after considerable rainfall.
If the money handed out to shareholders whilst debts mounted had been used for proper investment in improved storage and fewer leaks then the system might be robust enough to survive the pressures of a changing climate without this level of inconvenience for customers.
Will Lang, Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office said:
While it’s not possible to definitively forecast weather for the next three months, the chances of a drier-than-average period is higher than normal.
A more average three-month period for rainfall is still the most likely scenario, and we’ll continue to see a mix of conditions in the coming weeks and months.
It’s important to note that rainfall patterns in England are sporadic, so while some may get a lot of rainfall, others could see little relief to long-standing dry conditions.
The Drought Prospects report looks at the rainfall scenarios below and the likely impacts.
Rainfall scenarios for Yorkshire:
Average Winter Rainfall (100% of average rainfall)
With average winter rainfall, Yorkshire would return to normal conditions by spring 2026. However, a dry spring could mean a return to drought next year.
Public water supplies and irrigation reservoirs for agriculture would recover. The canal network would be recovered in time for the peak boating season, which begins around Easter. Some residual effects on nature would remain, such as a poor breeding season for amphibians.
Dry Winter (80% of average rainfall)
This scenario would see drought conditions increase over the winter months because of the current low river flows, groundwater, and reservoir levels. Drought risk would remain for Yorkshire Water over winter, but the company forecasts it will start to experience recovery from December and expects to return to normal conditions by March. In this scenario Yorkshire Water believes it may be able to remove TUBs in January but would review the situation and liaise with the Environment Agency before deciding.
However, the report says Yorkshire Water’s resources would not fully recover and that the company is at a higher risk of returning into drought if the dry weather continues through the spring.
Very Dry Winter (60% of average rainfall)
In this scenario Yorkshire would remain in drought and therefore water resources would be at significant risk if there was to be a dry spring or summer. Temporary Use Bans would also remain necessary as a way of preserving public water supplies.
The Environment Agency’s report also pushes for more collaboration across all sectors, with a list of recommended actions. Water companies should continue to engage and help customers use a little less water. They must also continue their efforts to reduce leakage and be ready for cold snaps, which can cause pipes to burst. They should also identify new sources of water and look to accelerate water saving schemes, where possible.
Farmers should decide if they need to adjust their cropping patterns to include more drought tolerant crops or varieties which do not need as much irrigation. They should also look to fill their reservoirs as soon as possible and work with their neighbours to share water rights, or share water, where possible.
The Environment Agency will continue to lead the nation’s response to drought. The regulator will also conduct enhanced monitoring, increase checks on abstractors, and continue to work with water companies on preparing for drought next spring.
It has also called for additional funding to be made available for long-term research into water use and ways to forecast future droughts.
